The best evidence comes from a study in the Journal of Marketing. Schmitt, Skiera, and Van den Bulte (2011) tracked about 10,000 customers of a leading German bank for almost three years. Referred customers:
- had a higher contribution margin, though the gap eroded over time;
- had a higher retention rate, and that gap persisted;
- were worth at least 16% more on average than similar non-referred customers.
The authors add a warning: the gap varied across customer segments, so firms "should use a selective approach." One bank is not your app, so read it as a signal.
The best-known product example is Dropbox. In his April 2010 Startup Lessons Learned slides, Drew Houston wrote that a "referral program w/ 2-sided incentive permanently increased signups by 60%," and that users sent 2.8 million direct referral invites in the trailing 30 days. That is the company's own report, not an independent audit.